Highlight: Warm pattern continues but questions on how far westward the warmth will extend and whether the West Coast turns wet (or not). Climate Signals ALERT Chart Days 6-10 Days 11-15 Arctic Oscillation Weak Positive Weak Positive North Atlantic Oscillation Neutral Neutral Pacific North America Weak Positive Weak Positive West Pacific Oscillation Positive Positive…
Admin: ECMWF model upgrade today. Charts of the day: Current and projected U.S. soil moisture. Discussion: U.S. soil moisture anomalies maintain West and North-central very dry signatures while the Southeast and Northeast are soaking wet. The outlook through the next several months is expanding wet conditions in the Southeast/East while extreme dryness remains over California.…
Highlight: Europe is mostly warmer than normal. Chart of the day: Latest ECM/CFS V2 November/December Outlooks. Discussion: ECM remains mild across Europe in November while CVS V2 is cool in the Black Sea region. CFS V2 expands that cool to cold regime in Southeast Europe/Southwest Russia in December while ECM trends colder to normally…
Chart of the day: November rains BREAK in December. Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid October 17-23, 2021: Mostly dry. Discussion: A few areas of patchy (heavy) rain otherwise the continent is mostly dry next week with anomalous warmth anchored central sections and the West Coast is cool. Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid October 24-30, 2021: Wet East.…
Charts of the day: November outlooks are biased dry far Southeast Brazil into northeast Argentina. Wet climate is to the north. Discussion: The November 2021 precipitation outlooks by ECM and CFS V2 stress a wet climate across Brazil EXCEPT the southeast sector (and Argentina) where dryness locks-in. Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid October 17-23, 2021: Dry…
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