Updating and Adjusting The Winter 2021-22 Outlook: DEC/JAN chill Central into Northeast U.S. Winter ends mild across the East. Executive summary: Cold SSTA in the Gulf of Alaska and off the U.S. West Coast to the south of Hawaii have developed. The NCEP CFS V2 weakens the cool SSTA pattern but is the most aggressive…
Highlight: Days 6-10 are chilly/stormy California, chilly/dry in the Northeast and much warmer ERCOT. Climate Signals ALERT Chart Days 6-10 Days 11-15 Arctic Oscillation Positive Negative North Atlantic Oscillation Weak Positive Neutral Pacific North America Neutral Neutral West Pacific Oscillation Positive Neutral East Pacific Oscillation Positive Strong Positive Madden Julian Oscillation Weak Weak Climate…
The Northeast Pacific Horse Shoe SSTA Pattern Emerging – Should ENHANCE La Nina Climate Into Early 2022 Executive Summary: For the first times since 2012, the cool “horse shoe” SSTA pattern stretching from the Gulf of Alaska to just-off the West Coast of North America and southwestward to the south of Hawaii toward the Dateline…
Highlight: Deluge of rain/snow West U.S. and some of that rain reaches the Midwest States. Wet Brazil/dry Argentina 10-day forecast. Fig. 1: Over-the-weekend forecast models trend wetter in the West U.S. and feature several to >12 in. of rain on the West Coast including many feet of mountain snow. The low altitude rains and high-altitude…
Highlight: U.S. wheat trends drier again. Continued wet Brazil/dry Argentina. China and Europe chill. Fig. 1-2: 12Z GFS 15-day percent of normal precipitation forecast for U.S. and Canada and soil moisture CHANGE so far in October. U.S. wheat crop trends drier again: The 12Z GFS 15-day percent of normal precipitation forecast returns a lengthy period…
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