Highlight: Expected eastward shift of the heat in July backs off. Charts of the day: The 7-day temperature/precipitation anomaly forecast. Discussion: North-travelling “Enrique” enhances the Mexico into the Southwest U.S. Monsoon pattern later this week and consequently forces a re-orientation of the Northwest U.S. upper ridge pattern farther northeastward into Canada. The result is a…
Discussion: The Nino34 region located in the equatorial east-central Pacific Ocean where the oceanic measurement to identify ENSO phase is made is changeable and this week right at 0.0 which is neutral (Fig. 1). The neutral observation is a considerable warm-up rom last week’s La Nina-like -0.5C value. The subsurface upper ocean heat has also…
Fig. 1: ECMWF 10-day rainfall forecast for the U.S. AG Belt. U.S. discussion: The ECMWF 10-day forecast indicates the core of the heavy rainfall shifting southward to New Mexico, Texas and the Gulf States while a plume of heavy rain extends northeastward to Missouri and another to the Tennessee Valley (Fig. 1). The southern shift…
Highlight: Northwest to North heat. Wet South and into the East. Extended-range thunderstorms for California. Chart of the day: Warm season 2021 U.S. monthly CDD anomalies Discussion: The projected CDD anomalies for the U.S. during each month of the warm season reveals the scorching hot month of June but wetter/tropical influences suppress heat risk for…
Highlight: Cold weather into southern Brazil coffee areas this week. Eastern Australia wet weather risk. Fig. 1-2: GFS morning minimum temperature forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday in Brazil. Brazil coffee freeze discussion: An intense low-pressure system off Uruguay propels a strong cold front into Southeast Brazil with an unusually chilly air mass to follow. Both…
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