Chart of the day: Current soil moisture anomalies for the U.S. Discussion: With 2 months remaining in meteorological spring the soil moisture conditions are important as to their ability to foreshadow with reasonable reliability anomalous hot/cool regions for summertime. Right now, the central Plains to Mid-Atlantic States are wet implying below normal risk of anomalous…
The latest U.S. week 2-4 forecast is updated.
Discussion: Australia Bureau of Meteorology ended La Nina 2020-21 today. SSTA in the equatorial East Pacific remains marginally cool (Fig. 1) however upper ocean heat to support La Nina’s survival is disappearing fast (Fig. 2). The Australia Bureau of Meteorology ENSO forecast indicates neutral ENSO ahead for the middle third of 2021 (Fig. 3). As…
Highlight: Central/East warmth, cool West pattern. Charts of the day: MJO impact on medium-range forecast. Discussion: Neutral ENSO has developed which implies a more active Madden Julian oscillation presence. MJO frequency/intensity is a make-or-break soil moisture/drought risk modulator for springtime in the U.S. The latest MJO forecast indicates a moderate-strength phase_6 (West Pacific) presence for…
Crop Area Drought Risk Monitor for APR/MAY to JUN/JUL 2021 Location/Crop Table 1 Current APR/MAY 2021 Drought Risk (Last forecast) JUN/JUL 2021 Drought Risk U.S. Corn Mostly “Unusually Moist” 35% (40%) 55% U.S. Hard Winter Wheat Mostly “Unusually Moist” 45% (65%) 65% U.S. Soybeans Mostly “Unusually to Very Moist” 40% (west)/25% (east) 50%(west)/35%…
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