Fig. 1: The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) for April 14, 2021. Fig. 2: The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) for April 14, 2021. What is EDDI? The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) examines how anomalous the atmospheric evaporation demand is for a given location and across a time period of interest according to…
Highlight: Southeast Brazil drought area avoids MJO-induced heavy rain risk. Fig. 1-3: Most likely precipitation anomalies in the 15-day forecast for South America according to the mega-cluster ensemble. Discussion: A strong convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) has emerged in the West/Central equatorial Pacific Ocean. The category-5 super typhoon just east of the…
Chart of the day: Long-term rainfall shortages = Deep layer soil moisture deficit = Summertime flash drought risk Discussion: According to research done by Auburn University, deep layer (10-200 CM) soil moisture deficits develop when lengthy periods of below normal precipitation occur. As a general guide, the maps indicate 12-month precipitation shortages which imply deep…
Fig. 1-2: The 12-month precipitation anomalies for the U.S. and Europe to Russia. Dry zones (in yellow/orange) are regions to watch for flash drought during the summer season if a long-duration (7+ days) period of heat with little or no rain occurs. Blue zones (wet anomalies) resist flash drought risk during summer. Summertime flash drought…
Highlight: MJO dominates the pattern…Cold this week, wetter 6-10 forecast and turning much warmer West days 11-15. Fig. 1-3: Mega-cluster ensemble North America weather pattern highlights days 1-15 ahead. Discussion: Forecast highlights for this week are focused on the unusual widespread cool-to-cold temperatures focused primarily on the Central U.S. (Fig. 1). Morning low temperatures are…
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