Discussion: NOAA/CPC released their latest long-lead climate probability forecasts earlier today. The outlook for July includes anomalous heat risk across most of the U.S. except the wet soil moisture region of the northwest Gulf States to the Missouri Valley (Fig. 1). The highest risk of anomalous heat is across New England. NOAA/CPC indicates a wetter…
Chart of the day: NOAA/CPC continues to highlight the western U.S. (except for the coast) with extreme heat risk the last 7 days of June. Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid June 22-26, 2021 Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid June 27-July 1, 2021 Discussion: The 6-10-day forecast remains hot in the West, most-focused on the Northwest.…
Fig. 1-3: Model rainfall bias days 1-5 for the past 7 days by CMC, ECM and GFS. Discussion: The CMC operational model has mixed verification scores across U.S. spring wheat and U.S. Western Corn Belt (Fig. 1). However, the average skill of the model in these two dry-to-drought regions is favored over the too dry…
Dryness to evolve in the Midwest; East and Gulf States remain wet. Western heat pulses across the Northern States and Texas. Louisiana is the tropical cyclone target. Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company month 1-3 ahead forecast valid for JUL/AUG/SEP 2021 is updated. A complete review of the dominating influences on North America climate have…
Highlight: Midwest cooler days 6-10; Southeast warmer days 11-15. Western heat continues. More heavy rains ahead for Louisiana. Chart of the day: NOAA/WPC 7-day rainfall forecast. Discussion: Tropical Disturbance 92L is forecast to lift northward out of the Bay of Campeche and become a tropical cyclone by tomorrow night and then into Louisiana this weekend…
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