Chart of the day: Prevailing soil moisture anomalies. Discussion: The daily NOAA/CPC soil moisture analysis reveals near normal amount for the Sumatra and Borneo Palm Oil region. Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid March 29-April 4, 2021: Drier trend for most of Sumatra and Borneo. Discussion: Sumatra and Borneo palm oil regions trend drier to start April.…
Highlight: Eastern Australia deluge continues. Fig. 1: Latest satellite view of a rain storm across East/Southeast Australia. Discussion: Heavy rains have caused widespread flooding across New South Wales this weekend due to a moist onshore tropical flow into a low-pressure trough made more intense by a blocking high-pressure area to the south (Fig. 1). A…
Fig. 1-4: Mega-cluster ensemble 15-day rainfall anomaly forecast across South America and the GFS 5-day heavy rain forecast for northeast Argentina. South America discussion: The South America rainfall pattern across Argentina and Brazil in the 15-day forecast is changeable. This week Argentina is struck by heavy rains while Brazil is mostly dry and warmer than…
Fig. 1-2: Current Australia satellite view ad 48-hour rainfall forecast. Australian deluge of rain: The heaviest rainfall event of the warm season occurs as the warm season closes. A low-pressure trough/weak frontal boundary extends northwest-to-southeast across northern New South Wales (Fig. 1). The frontal boundary is focusing a wet subtropical fetch of air from the…
Fig. 1-4: NOAA/NWS daily precipitation outlooks for Monday through Thursday. Short-term high impact events: Another active week for storminess although major severe weather outbreaks are not expected (yet). On Monday, more heavy rain for the Great Plains along a slow-moving cold front. Flash flood risk is present on Monday for Kansas and Oklahoma with severe…
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