Fig. 1: Latest Australia Bureau of Meteorology Indian Ocean Dipole forecast. Discussion: The Australia Bureau of Meteorology updated their Indian Ocean Dipole forecast earlier today. The outlook indicates the negative phase continues through the remainder of 2021 (Fig. 1). Peak intensity arrives in September and lasts through November. Despite the still-strengthening -IOD pattern, the 15-day…
Chart of the day: Updated rainfall required to neutralize dry PDSI. Discussion: Arizona and across the California desert plus parts of New Mexico have observed fading drought. However, elsewhere the drought pattern affecting much of the U.S. intensified last week. The Western U.S. Corn Belt shifted into D3/D4 drought last week and historic drought in…
Highlight: Neutral ENSO! Still, signs of La Nina for later 2021. Discussion: The Nino SSTA regions are steadily in neutral phase while waters off the northwest coast of South America (Nino12) briefly warmed in late July/early August but cooled last week (Fig. 1). The Nino34 SSTA is used to determine ENSO phase has been cooler…
Highlight: Transitional pattern BUT Northwest ridge will return. Chart of the day: “Warm blob” has strengthened. Discussion: The northeast Pacific Ocean has warmed during mid-summer. The “warm blob’ is now +0.86C and reaching the West Coast of North America. This feature is linked to the high-pressure ridge affecting the Northwest U.S. Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast…
Highlight: Europe cools off, Western Russia is hotter! Fig. 1-3: ECM ENS 15-day temperature anomaly forecast across Europe and Western Russia. Discussion: An upper-trough brings cooler/wetter weather to northwest/central Europe this week ending the Southern Europe heat wave (Fig. 1). Italy to Southeast Europe can still be hot and dry. Western Russia torrid heat and…
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