Highlight: Late Spring to Mid-Summer Forecast Remains Hotter Than Normal; East is wet and Central Dry Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company month 1-3 ahead forecast valid for May to July 2021 is updated. The outlook is hotter than normal for the 90-day period except western Washington, Florida and southern Georgia/Alabama. The hottest anomalies for…
Highlight: Overall, warmer-than-normal (except West). Charts of the day: Risk of >95F. Discussion: Risk of >95F during the minimum range is increasing for California, the Desert Southwest and especially Texas. Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid May 3-7, 2021 (yesterday left) Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid May 8-12, 2021 Discussion: The warm pattern remains progressive to…
Highlight: A 15-day and week 3-4 rainfall assessment across key crop areas. North/west/southwest Great Plains dryness accelerates. Ohio Valley dryness eases. For now, no drought concerns Europe/Western Russia/Black Sea. Brazil drought worsens. Fig. 1-2: U.S. 15-day and week 3-4 (model) precipitation anomalies. The 15-day wet bias is across the East-central U.S. to eastern Oklahoma. Most…
Highlight: U.S. soil moisture trending drier and forecast model verification scores are trending wetter. Do we believe wet forecasts? Fig. 1-2: Current U.S. soil moisture anomalies and April trend (so far). Discussion: Current soil moisture conditions across the U.S. indicate widespread dryness across the western states and into Texas (Fig. 1). Dryness across the North-central…
Highlight: Eastern states trend warmer. Charts of the day: -GLAAM emerges; slower upper wind. Discussion: Global atmospheric angular momentum goes negative as mid-latitude upper wind slows down and most of that slowdown bias is across the Americas. Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid May 2-6, 2021 Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid May 7-11, 2021 Discussion: A…
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