Discussion: An amplifying upper trough beginning early next week over South-central Australia continues to strengthen through the 11-15-day period shifting eastward. An unusually cool air mass evolves across Australia in the 6-10-day period (Fig. 1) shifting into East Australia days 11-15 (Fig. 2). Prior to this event, temperatures reach 100F over the North! As the…
Highlight: Great Plains less wet in medium-range, Southeast Europe heavy rainfall episode and Southeast Brazil trends wetter. Fig. 1-2: GFS percent of normal 15-day precipitation forecast and 24-hr. change. Great Plains trends drier: Heavy precipitation remains focused on the 6-10-day period for the northern Rockies and into the North-central U.S. (Fig. 1). Mountain areas receive…
Highlight: Brazil has entered the expected wet pattern. Dry concerns shift to Argentina. Charts of the day: 30 and 7-day anomalous precipitation pattern. Discussion: The 30-day and 7-day percent of normal rainfall observations across South America indicate a wetter pattern is developing across parts of Brazil. The far southwest and east portions of Brazil are…
Highlight: No change to the cold West/warm Central/East forecast. Precipitation increases for the Northwest/North-central (and Calif.). Chart of the day: Early season snow cover causes trough/ridge pattern for northern hemisphere. Discussion: Cold advection snows into northwestern North America and northeastern Eurasia cool the atmosphere aloft and provide an early season home for the polar vortex.…
Executive summary: La Nina Modoki is rare! The last fortified La Nina Modoki occurred during quarter 1 of 1989. The climate patterns for quarter 1 of 1989 associated with this ENSO regime were generally much different from conventional La Nina. The La Nina Modoki favors a drier climate in South America and Australia and shifts…
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