Highlight: Bold Ontario/Quebec upper trough cools the outlook. Chart of the day: Upper air pattern suppresses warm risk. Discussion: The evolving upper trough over Southeast Canada is impressive and lasts into mid-May. The Pacific to U.S. to Atlantic jet stream is stronger than normal and forces any anomalous warm risk south of its axis. The…
Chart of the day: Soil moisture anomaly analysis. Discussion: The Europe/Western Russia/Black Sea region daily soil moisture anomaly analysis does not reveal significant dryness in any crop areas as April closes. Patchy dry areas have emerged in France and Germany and the Baltic region. However, the Black Sea region is looking OK. Week-2 Ahead Forecast…
Highlight: Brazil dryness is steady. Charts of the day: Short-term temperature/precipitation regime. Discussion: The Brazil drought region remains dry through the next 10 days and trends warmer as dry soil conditions worsen. Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid May 10-16, 2021: Brazil stays dry and very warm. Discussion: Very warm weather and continued dry as the southwest/southeast…
Charts of the day: Short-term temperature/precipitation outlooks. Discussion: The large-scale pattern, governed by Madden Julian oscillation, indicates support for a much drier Australia climate into early May. The week ahead is dry except for heavy rain risk on the north/northeast coast possibly related to a tropical system. Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid May 10-16, 2021: Cool…
Charts of the day: GFS/ECM Ensemble temperature forecast bias past 30 days. Discussion: During April, temperature forecast bias was quite warm by the GFS ENS across the West-central and North-central U.S. (and into Canada). The ECM ENS does not have that warm bias for central North America. However, ECM ENS has a cool bias for…
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