Highlight: Western heat and dryness as drought severity sharpens. Wet Central pattern should shift into the East. Charts of the day: During summer, upper trough(s) find the wet soil regions. Discussion: The June 2021 upper air forecast by NCEP CFS V2 identifies a common summertime phenomenon…upper trough(s) across regions of wet soil moisture. Week-2 Ahead…
Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company month 1-3 ahead forecast for Australia valid for June through August 2021 is updated. There are changes from the previous forecast. In the update, the most prominent mode of climate influence is an evolving negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole. The -IOD influence is wet in Eastern Australia…
Neutral ENSO continues; monitoring the warming subsurface. Discussion: Neutral ENSO appears in the Nino SSTA regions for the middle of May (Fig. 1). In the sub-surface, warming spreads from the Dateline to northwest coast of South America (Fig. 2). Normally, this subsurface signature – if persistent – would trigger an El Nino development risk. Forecast…
Fig. 1: Current weather satellite view of Australia. Discussion: A cold front has moved across Western Australia bringing attendant rain showers (Fig. 1). Amounts are generally light except moderate in the vicinity of Adelaide. The incoming frontal system will deliver some much-needed rain to Southeast Australia over the next 30+ hours. GFS indicates 0.50 to…
Chart of the day: Beginning of wet weather return to Mid-Atlantic? Discussion: The Mid-Atlantic spring has been mostly dry. However, 15-day forecasts indicate increasing risk of wet weather mostly in the medium-range. Climate forecasts are also wet for summer ahead. Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid May 29-June 2, 2021 Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid June…
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