South America Week 2-4 Outlook: Argentina dryness and wet southwest Brazil. Argentina trends hotter.

Charts of the day: South America soil moisture anomalies and GFS ENS 10-day percent of normal rainfall forecast. Discussion: Soil moisture deficit improved slightly last week across central and eastern Brazil. However, major soil moisture deficits continue across most crop areas. In Argentina, drier soils are emerging. The 10-day percent of normal rainfall forecast by…

Europe/Western Russia Week 2-4 Outlook: Arctic cold in Western Russia slowly subsides. Does not extend to Europe.

Charts of the day: The 7-day temperature anomaly forecast. Discussion: All winter-long the arctic air source region for the northern hemisphere has anchored in Russia. Currently, the core of the arctic air is across west and central Russia while upstream anomalous warmth is almost as impressive across Europe during the next week. Week-2 Ahead Forecast…

U.S. Medium-range Forecast: East and South warm trend. West turns chilly.

Chart of the day: Evolving -PNA pattern. Discussion: Once the arctic air has dissipated early next week the -PNA regime takes over the U.S. climate pattern shifting the cold weather into the Western States. Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid February 23-27, 2021 Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid February 28-March 4, 2021 Discussion: Cold stratosphere causes…