Chart of the day: U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast. Discussion: The consensus of all forecast models is markedly less cold (by 15 HDD) for next week while just-the-opposite (15 HDD colder) is indicated for Feb. 12-18. The lower number next week is due to less impact on the East while the colder value for…
Highlight: Is the 2012 analog for 2021 reasonable? Fig. 1-2: The May 2012 global SSTA analysis and the ECMWF May 2021 global SSTA forecast. Discussion: In May 2012 the global SSTA was characterized by a La Nina to neutral ENSO, lingering cool phase Pacific decadal oscillation (cool waters in the Gulf of Alaska and southwest…
Highlight: Where are the drought and drought watch areas in key crop regions? Fig. 1-4: New daily NOAA/CPC continental soil moisture anomalies. National soil moisture discussion: In a surprise, the daily soil moisture anomalies across Australia for Feb. 2, 2021 identify dry-to-drought areas enhanced by below normal mid-summer precipitation across much of Queensland and Western…
Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company month 1-3 ahead forecast valid for March to May 2021 is updated. The outlook is based on a constructed analog coupled with the ENSO regime to produce the most likely climate scenarios for each month. The 90-day outlook for spring features an exceptionally warm season for the U.S. especially…
Charts of the day: Days 6-10 risk of <32F and <0F zones. Discussion: The just-issued 0600 GMT GFS OP U.S. temperature anomaly forecast for the next 15 days indicates trends are colder east of the Divide but potentially warmer in the Southwest with subsequent model runs today. Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid February 8-12, 2021…
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