Highlight: Day 1-5 and 11-15 forecast issues for North Dakota. Iowa is dry. Fig. 1-2: GFS and ECM 120-hour rainfall forecasts across North Dakota valid through 7AM Saturday. Models differ this week on Dakota rainfall: GFS and ECM could not be more different on this week’s rainfall forecast for the Dakotas. The GFS unloads 3-5…
Highlight: Checking 15-day precipitation outlooks for South America, Europe/Russia and Australia plus India. Fig. 1-4: ECM ENS 15-day rainfall anomaly forecasts for South America and Europe/Western Russia and the 24-hour change. Drier Brazil and Eastern Europe: Wetter weekend forecasts for Brazil were over-stated. The transitory shift of the MJO through the American longitude was the…
Some rainfall not that helpful to North Dakota. Western Corn Belt drying. Europe could trend drier while Black Sea region stays wet. Wetter Brazil forecasts. Fig. 1-2: Just-issued mega-cluster “most likely” percent of normal rainfall forecast for days 1-5 and 6-10 across North America. U.S. 10-day rainfall forecast discussion: Forecast models indicate with increased frequency…
Chart of the day: Northeast Pacific SSTA influence on West Coast temperatures. Discussion: The “warm blob” off the U.S. West Coast sometimes contributes to anomalous high-pressure leading to hot weather in California while at other times the cool SSTA pattern off the immediate coast can cool the coastal areas. Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid June…
Fig. 1-2: Yesterday’s updated U.S. Drought Monitor for the North-central and Midwest U.S. regions. U.S. spring wheat and west/northwest U.S. Corn Belt drought: D3/D4 drought is present across North Dakota, northwest South Dakota and into southern Canada (Fig. 1). D3/D4 drought conditions during summertime do not erode unless an interaction between the prevailing storm track…
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